Mendham QB Colin Schermerhorn commands their potent "O" last Saturday.
#12 is only ONE reason the Minutemen are 6-1. These boys can play.
(Courtesy http://www.morriscountyhssports.net/)
---UPDATE---UPDATE---UPDATE---
It turns out there were some more major errors in my calculations, essentially because some of the teams who are at play are not complete through 7 games to date.
Irvington is idle this week and plays their 8th game on 11-02.
Colonia, New Brunswick, Union Hill, and SP-Fanwood all will not have their 8th game until 11-03-07.
So how does this affect the below?? Essentially, it tosses a lot of what i said earlier out the window. I have recalculated. Sorry folks.
The short story of it though is that Mendham needs to win this weekend to keep hopes alive of a spot in the bottom half of the playoff picture. I will paint an accurate picture for you all after this weekend.
Irvington is idle this week and plays their 8th game on 11-02.
Colonia, New Brunswick, Union Hill, and SP-Fanwood all will not have their 8th game until 11-03-07.
So how does this affect the below?? Essentially, it tosses a lot of what i said earlier out the window. I have recalculated. Sorry folks.
The short story of it though is that Mendham needs to win this weekend to keep hopes alive of a spot in the bottom half of the playoff picture. I will paint an accurate picture for you all after this weekend.
Mendham (North 2, Group III):
- Currently sitting at the number 5 spot in their section with 39 Power Points between Colonia (43) and New Brunswick (37). A win over Mo Hills this weekend would boost their points total to 49 (2 x Mo hills group (2) = 4 + Mo Hills victories (6) = 10)
- Irvington, Newark West, and Morristown are all essentially locked in to one of the top three spots (congrats, fellas). Their wins or losses this weekend will merely determine which of those three spots they will occupy.
- Colonia (5-1) will likely win this weekend vs Carteret (4-2). 8 point game...Colonia improves to 51 points, and will likely remain at the #4 spot (or higher if they then beat Group 4 Sayreville on 11-02).
---The top half of this Group/section will likely remain as is...there may be some minor jockeying between teams.----
- This week New Brunswick (4-2) plays South River (6-1), who beat Carteret. New Brunswick lost to Carteret; therefore I predict New Brunswick will lose to South River. This keeps their points total static at 37. The week of 11-02 they play JFK, and will probably win but this will only add 5-6 power points to their meager total. They look to be sitting at 42-43 pts.
---------- ------------ ----------- -------------
- Worst Case: Mendham loses to MoHills and Colonia loses to Carteret and New Brunswick, Union Hill, Scotch Plains-Fanwood, and South Plainfield all win. If this happens (extremely remote possibility), Mendham is SOL at #10 in Power Points rankings. In this case they would need at least one loss from two of any of the others. If Colonia wins and Mendham loses, Mendham only needs a loss from any one of the other teams to grab that last seed. But this would also be bad, as you would get to play either at Irvington, Newark West, or Morristown in round one. In that case, Mendham would want Motown at the #1 seed (I'll explain why if that actually happens).
- Best Case: Mendham wins, Colonia loses out; Mendham moves up to seed 4 and gets a home playoff game in round one vs either New Brunswick, Union Hills or Colonia (depending on what happens furhter down). For deeper in the picture...Morristown Wins, and Irvington and Newark West lose. The rest is kind of irrelevant...
- Most likely: Mendham beats Mo Hills, and improves to 49 points. This will keep them at the number 5 seed (unless Scotch Plains wins out making WMM #6), as a win by Colonia is also ML scenario. Mendham travels to #4 Colonia (or #3, currently: Motown) for round 1 of the playoffs.
Other ML: (7th gm wk, 8th gm Wk, ttl pts)
New Brunswick - L , W, ~42
Union Hill - W, W, ~46
Scotch Plains - ??, W, ~34-54
South Plainfield - xx, L, 28
Bottom Line:
If Mendham beats Mo Hills they are in, probably 4th-6th seed.
If Mendham loses, they will need some help - probably in the form of two losses each from Scotch Plains and South Plainfield - to stay alive. In this scenario I would say they have a 30% chance of still seeding 8th .
Note: Scotch Plains stands to accumulate mega huge points in the next two weeks. If they win both games, it could really shake things up, but this would be a death knell for Mendham if they lost to MoHills.
Weird Note2: If Mendham loses to MoHills and beats HP (7-2); West Essex loses to ParHills and beats Chatham (7-2); Par Hills beats WE and Weequahic (7-2); and Mo Hills beats Mendham and loses to Summit (!!) (7-2) we have a four way tie for first in the IHC Hills.
Even Weirder...Mendham could possibly be a co-champion of the Hills and NOT have a playoff berth. Try that one on for size.
7 comments:
Wow, Val Halla that is pretty impressive stuff. I hope Mendham doesn't have to play Colonia or Union Hill for the only fact that I have no clue where those schools are from.
Irvington would be a cool school to play. So would Morristown. Morristown would probaby be an interesting matchup bc they are mostly Juniors as well behind Georgie Bass and Culver.
But, I think our hardest game will be this weekend. I really like our chances though. We have some really great offensive weapons and our defense is just silly with how good they are getting. You can actually see them getting better every week.
Here's an interesting tidbit...rewind a few years to 8th grade for these Juniors, in Midget Varsity football.
Twin Boro (Mendham), Morristown, and Long Valley (WMC), were Tri-Champions in the MCMFL all at one loss a piece...TB lost to Motown, Motown lost to LV and LV lost to TB.
Now, present day, they are all Juniors and 2 of the three programs are 6-1. WMC imploded because, I believe, they have coaching issues or leadership issues brought on by the coach(es)...but that is another story.
I say that Mendham would want Motown to be the #1 seed because (among other reasons) I think Mendham would prefer to travel to MTWN rather than Irvington or Newark. But like I said, more on that road if we go there.
Whatever happens this year you can count on two things:
1. Both the Colonials and the Minutemen are shaping up to be dominating forces in their Divisions next year. Mendham has some great Senior leadership on the team, but both teams are littered with outstanding Juniors and
2. We have a good chance of another WMC-WMM playoff showdown similar to '01 and '04. For that to happen WMC has got some issues that need t be fixed. If that happens, you can toss out the records in that game, because these two schools are one of the greatest rivalries in the state.
...and one more thing...Riddle me this BATMAN:
HOW THE HELL IS MOTOWN IN THE SAME GROUP AS MENDHAM!?!?!?!?
If you have been on the campus of either of these two schools seen the size; if this isn't a case study of one reason why the power point system is flawed...ugh...
Didn't they change the groups recently? It makes no sense to me at all. Geographically they are obviously close to one another, but it doesn't have anything to do with that, does it?
Yes the groups were changed and Mendham was juggled to III as has been happening for several years now.
Geography comes into play when you are dealing with the Northern half of the state only. Group classification is based entirely on school size (supposedly). The number that is used is the number of Sophs-Seniors in a student body from the previous academic year. You can find out everything you ever wanted to know about the NJ state athletics and playoff system at www.NJSIAA.org.
what about shabazz
I took a quick look...Shabazz needs to win out and the others above them have to lose at least one game and they are in. There is a chance that a one-loss with help scenario could get you in...what really helps is that both teams you play are group 4, what doesn't is that only one of them has a winning record.
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