Sunday, October 28, 2007

Updated Playoff Picture [Expanded]

---UPDATE---

2 NOV update

From the Mighty JoeHof [emphasis mine]:

"Mendham is seventh but don't figure to remain there by Saturday night. The Minutemen will be rooting for JFK-Iselin to stun New Brunswick, which is not at all likely to happen. Since New Brunswick is a prohibitive favorite in that one, Mendham must hope for underdog Bishop Ahr to defeat Carteret. If Carteret wins, South Plainfield will get one residual point, tie Mendham, and then win the tiebreaker, according to coach Doug Kirk.

"One of those two has to go our way for us to get in," Kirk said. "I hope I'm wrong in these calculations, but I'm pessimistic. At least three 5-3 teams will get in ahead of us, a 6-2 team. That means my kids would have had to go 7-1 to get in. That's the way it goes -- no complaints -- we like our league and some years it's different. This year we're in a tough section."

So I guess it is a little more complicated than I thought. Total B.S. 7-1 to qualify the playoffs? Somebody shoot the person who invented the power points system. How 'bout a shot at North 1 Group III instead?? I'm pissed.


10-31-07:

I have had some requests regarding the status of other teams in IHC and MoCo. A quick look:

North 2 Group II:


The field is basically set here. Rd1- #1 MoHills v. #8 Bernards etc. You can check it out at the link below. The only possible change is that Madison has not yet played its eight game and could move up a little with a win over Orange this week.

North 1 Group III

This one is a little more interesting, but mostly set. Wayne Valley has clinched homefield at no.1. Old Tappan could move from #4 to #3 with a win over Mahwah. But what is interesting here is that Montville is 11th in Power Points but will likely get a playoff berth because #8 Roxbury, #9 Rampo, and #10 Teaneck all don't have a .500 record or better. Not sure if that is a credit or not to the system...

The expanded scenarios in North 2, Group III for Mendham are as follows in order of likelihood of occurrence:

IF Irvington beats Newark West and New Brunswick beats JFK, (#8) Mendham plays at (#1) Irvington in round 1.

IF Newark West beats Irvington, and NB beats JFK, (#8) Mendham plays at (#1) Motown in round 1.

IF IRV beats NW and JFK beats NB, (#7) Mendham plays at (#2) Motown for round 1.

IF NW beats IRV and JFK beats NB, (#7) Mendham is at (#2) Irvington for round 1.

Note: While I believe Newark West has a 30-40% chance of beating Irvington, it is extremely unlikely that JFK beats New Brunswick, therefore, I predict Mendham has a 60% - 70% chance of facing Irvington in round 1.

...and yes, as a reminder, the outcome of the HP game has no bearing on the playoffs, however a loss would statistically eliminate Mendham's chances of a shared conference title.

--- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Mendham has 41 power points and South Plainfield has 40. Both teams are complete through game 8 of their schedule(s).

As it stands right now, I don't see how Mendham can drop below 8th, regardless of what happens next week with the rest of the field below who has not played their eighth games. So Mendham has clinched a berth in North 2, Group III (by one point).NOPE

You can double-and triple check my math here. Please let me know soonest via comments if you find any errors.

That is the good news.

The bad news is, no matter how you slice it, Mendham will be playing a road game for Round one of the playoffs...most likely at Irvington or at Newark West Side Morristown.

Morristown will be bumped from the current #1 seed to #2 seed if Irvington defeats Newark West this weekend (11-02).

If New Brunswick (4-3) Wins next week against JFK (Iselin) (1-7) and they most likely obviously will, Mendham will be bumped from the current #7 position, to #8.

If Mendham plays Morristown, I will have a whole lot to write, so standby.

Conference Title

Regarding the conference title thing...obviously Mendham has to win next week vs HP which will be a tough game, but both WEssex must lose vs. Chatham (possible) and MoHills must lose versus Summit (hmmm...uhh...100 to 1 odds on that one I think). If WEssex loses and MoHills wins, MoHills takes the conference.

24 comments:

The Coach said...

just checking in and waiting for the .. umm coach, you were right! With all due respect (and there is a ton of respect due to both teams and staffs), you were also right. Mendham did all you said they would, but MH came up with the big-big plays. (1) The tip ball & int. on the very impressive Mendham drive. (2) Kellner's int while he went over two receivers. (3) The whistle on the amazing fake by Kellner that would have gave MH a chance to score with 1:00 left till half. (4) MH being all over the screen and hook-and-lateral in the 4th Q. But it was just great D all day.

You say possible, and I guess everything in HS football is possible, but no way Chatham beat West Essex. It's wishful thinking by you, but come on ... did you see what WE did Par Hills WITHOUT 2 key players, (1) an all-state back on both sides of the ball.

Mendham/HP should be a great-great game!


If Mendham faces Motown, I also have a lot to write ... and I am all over Morristown!

Just for the record, I am not a Mendham hater in any way, not since I graduated HS at least.

Note #2: Last time MH beat Mendham 7-0 after a 2 two nor-easter that was played at Mendham, it was 1989 and that team went to the state finals!

That was actually two of the best Mendham teams to never win a title. '89 lost to MH & '90 lost to HP twice ... and THEY WERE AWESOME TEAMS!

Val Halla said...

da COACH,

Thanks and I remember both of those games and teams as well.

And of course you picked the winner! And the game could easily have gone either way I think.

Are you gonna have highlight video posted to your site? No that there were many highlights in the D showdown... :) Kinda like Baltimore in the SB a few years back.

I am glad that both teams are in the playoffs but sad that the conference is a 200 to 1 longshot at this point...but you know what they say: "any given Sunday".

Arnie Shaw said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

The 1990 game shows that there is no point in disciplining players. Check out Verona this year, Several students transferred this year and one wasn't able to play for 3 games because of some bullshit fight. Verona was still 6-1 but their run to a state championship could be thwarted because they are missing those kids this year. I think one of them even goes to East Orange now.

At any rate, I'm glad Mendham had morales in 1990, it probably got Unruly laid after an HP victory that day (ha ha, yeah right!)

Arnie Shaw said...

Bro, Fakehead, dude, that wasn't some bullshit fight. The kid almost killed another kid for no reason. Secondly, when have you become a Verona fan?

Thirdly...the only thing that Mendham game gave me was one more week of being a tackling dummy. It was worth it though.

Anonymous said...

I know about Verona for several reasons, and we represent one of the kids, and he had NOTHING to do with the fight but is being punished like he did. (He did not physically touch anybody). It's my understanding the victim only got a broken nose and orbital bone. I don't know... Either way it was probably a stupid fight and I don't condone any of that shit.

REgardless, I just got around to reading your Par Hills/Mendham article (well written by the way) and it sounds to me like Mendham got LUCKY when Par Hills committed a it-must-be-a-record THREE penalties in a row when they scored three times at the Mendham one-yard line!!!!!!! Par Hills should have gone for it again on fourth down!

I hate to say it, because all you Mendham people sound like nice folks, but the writing is one the wall for Mendham. They could only have a few "minutes" left before their post-season hopes and/or playoff charge is dashed. (Get it, minutes? Minutemen? ha ha)
Go HP!

Anonymous said...

Maybe I'm jaded, we've represented people who have done a lot worse than been at the scene of a fight.

I doubt you remember, but when my brother played hoops for HP he actually beat up a kid in retaliation for a hard foul on his teammate DURING THE GAME!!!!!! My brother wasn't kicked out of school, he only got kicked off the basketball team (his second offense) and suspended a day (or he had to spend a day in the "Tank" or something). He was able to play baseball the same year! Times have changed regarding fights between kids and their consequences, probably for the better though.

Anonymous said...

Maybe I'm jaded, we've represented people who have done a lot worse than been at the scene of a fight.

I doubt you remember, but when my brother played hoops for HP he actually beat up a kid in retaliation for a hard foul on his teammate DURING THE GAME!!!!!! My brother wasn't kicked out of school, he only got kicked off the basketball team (his second offense) and suspended a day (or he had to spend a day in the "Tank" or something). He was able to play baseball the same year! Times have changed regarding fights between kids and their consequences, probably for the better though.

Arnie Shaw said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

North II Group II seeding: I've done the math and here's how it stacks up. The only games remaining that will affect the PP and tiebreakers are Madison/Orange, Caldwell/Wayne Valley and Butler/Millburn. Madison can gain 6 PPs by winning (they should) and Caldwell can gain 14 PPs by winning (they shouldn't). Madison gains 1 PP by Butler winning (they should).

If everything I predicted above happens, Madison and HP tie with 32 PP and Chatham and Caldwell tie with 30 PP. The Mad/HP tie would be broken by the second tiebreaker (HP 46-Mad 44). The Chat/Cald tie would be broken by the first tiebreaker (Cald 21-Chat 18). So the seeds would go like this:

1 Mo Hills
2 W. Essex
3 HP
4 Madison
5 Caldwell
6 Chatham
7 Ridgefield Pk
8 Bernards

I'm disappointed b/c I wanted to see Madison play Chatham. Who needs rematches of HP/Chatham and Madison/Caldwell????

Val Halla said...

Thanks for the detailed breakdown, KC and nice work.

I agree Madison-Chatham would be great and would certainly be worth more than the price of admission. I was hoping to see that too.

Stupid question, but have Madison and Chatham ever met in football? I imagine that it would be a backyard brawl, just like HP-Madison would be...

Arnie Shaw said...

Madison/HP would be a brawl but they just dont seem like big rivals. Madison was never a rival to us as we never played them. Actually check that, HP might have played them in the 70's and 80's bc I remember my brother twisted his ancle at Dogdger Stadium before a game and actually had one of his best games (with a broken ancle practically)

Arnie Shaw said...

But I agree, Madison/Chatham would be a great matchup. In my opinion Chatham was one of the best all around teams I saw this year. They just got a few tough breaks vs. Par Hills and Mendham especially.

Anonymous said...

My pleasure, guys. I love Morris County football (I'm Madison alum) and was pleased to come across this blog.

To my knowledge, since the early 70's Madison has never played Chatham. Until recently, that was no big deal to me as they wouldn't have put up much of a fight anyway. Now I would love it! It wouldn't be much of a "rivalry" but it sure would be good to establish bragging rights for a while.

As for HP-Madison, they used to be in the same conference (RIP, Suburban Conference, we still miss you) so they played every season. I played in the last conference matchup in 1982. They were definitely "backyard brawls" as all of the Suburban Conference games were with Summit, NP, Caldwell, Verona and West Orange. Not sure if they've ever met in the states since then, but since Madison has spent half the time as a Group I school, I doubt it.

Madison is also "a few tough breaks" away from a 6-1 record with a victory over Delbarton, so don't count them out.

Val Halla said...

KC - awesome send unruly and I an email at the addresses on the right hand side.

Arnie Shaw said...

KC, that is cool. My brother played in 81 for HP. One of his best friends was on Madison and they went to William Patterson together and continued to play there.

Thanks for dropping by! I know a lot about the Madison sports program (I grew up in FP). So they will be up on this blog form time to time, even though the main focus is the Iron Hills Conf.

Anonymous said...

UJF - I was a soph scrub (kickoff team) on the '81 Dodgers. I believe we beat HP at home that year, but lost to them in '82. I didn't know anyone from the '81 team (an underperforming 5-4 squad) went on to play at "Bill on the Hill". Who was it?

Anonymous said...

Mike Savercool...my bro's friend. He was small but my bro said he was the toughest guy on the Willy P team. Both he and my bro played V all four years there.

Anonymous said...

Mike Savercool's senior season was 1980 when they lost to Whippany Park in the state final. Ray Savercool, his younger brother, played on the '81 team. I played with him. He was a psycho (but very tough) SOB. I'm sure you meant Mike and the 1980 team. They graduated in '81.

Anonymous said...

Yes Mike. I know he has some psycho bro's. But Mike was good in his own right.

Anonymous said...

I don't know Mike, but I remember him being a helluva ballplayer. I've heard he is a well-respected contractor in the area and a really good guy.

Anonymous said...

The die is cast. Madison lost to Orange, so they'll get the 7 seed.

1 Morris Hills
2 West Essex
3 HP
4 Caldwell
5 Chatham
6 Ridgfield Pk
7 Madison
8 Bernards

My picks:

1-3 will win, Chatham will "upset" Caldwell

Chatham over Mo Hills
West Essex over HP

West Essex over Chatham

Arnie Shaw said...

Nice prediction and that is probably the most likely. I am going with Chatham with the emotional pick. I just liked the way they play. And I like that their coach is a cop (at least that is what I heard). You gotta love the blue collar aspect.

Anonymous said...

unruly

"blue collar" is the very last thing I think of when I think of Chatham football. I'm sure that's not fair to the current and recent squads who earned their stripes, but they have a long history of weakness that is hard to shake.

Their head coach, Don Dayon, is a cop in Rahway, I think.